Leak 10 · Freight & Cost-to-Serve - Excessive split shipments

One order, three boxes, three carrier charges, one freight charge to the customer. Backorders and branch stocking decide it, not anyone in particular.

Diagnostic note. Symptoms, required records, an initial check, and possible fixes. This shorter note does not include a full worked example.

What is it?

Orders split when part of the order is on backorder, when lines are stocked in different branches, or when the warehouse ships what is ready rather than waiting. Each additional shipment carries its own carrier cost and handling, and the customer is usually charged once, if at all.

Family
Freight & Cost-to-Serve
Primary owner
Operations Manager
Secondary owners
Purchasing Manager, Customer Service Manager
Primary impact
EBITDA
Typical data source
ERP shipment records, order lines, carrier invoices
Detection difficulty
30-day measurability

Ask yourself

What share of your orders ship in more than one shipment, and do you know why?

Yes, partially, no, or don’t know. “Don’t know” is the most useful answer, because it points at the test below.

What does it look like?

Warning signs. None of these proves the leak exists. They tell you where to look.

  • Many orders with two or more shipments.
  • Backordered lines shipped individually as they arrive.
  • Customers receiving several deliveries a week from the same order.
  • Carrier charges per order well above the freight billed.

What data do I need?

The minimum viable set. Most of it is already in your ERP.

Field
Order number and line count
Shipment records per order, with dates and carrier cost
Reason for the split: backorder, branch, partial release
Freight billed on the order

The initial check

Start with a small sample. Gathering the exports, agreements, or observations is separate from running the check; agree that work with the person who owns the records.

  1. 1Export last month’s shipments and count shipments per order.
  2. 2For orders with more than one shipment, sum carrier cost and compare to freight billed.
  3. 3Sample ten and record the reason for the split.
Excess freight = Σ over split orders of (carrier cost of additional shipments − additional freight billed)

Then ask one question: How many of the splits would the customer have been happy to wait a day or two to avoid?

How much could it be costing us?

A conservative range, not a headline. The goal is a number management can trust enough to investigate.

Split shipments per year × average additional carrier and handling cost × share that could be consolidated

Common root causes

Fixes fall into three layers. Not every problem needs software, and almost none needs AI first.

Process
No rule for when to hold a partial order, and no conversation with the customer about consolidation.
Data
Backorder release is automatic and line-by-line.
Technology
The ERP releases lines as they become available with no consolidation window.

What should we do?

Start with the simplest intervention that could solve it. Move down the list only if the one above is not enough.

  1. Level 1

    Visibility

    A monthly split-shipment rate by cause and customer.

  2. Level 2

    Policy

    A default consolidation window for backorder releases, with customer-level exceptions.

  3. Level 3

    Workflow

    Hold partial releases automatically and prompt the CSR to confirm with the customer when a line is delayed.

Where AI helps

  • Predicting which customers will accept a short delay for consolidation based on order history.

Where AI probably doesn’t

A release rule in the ERP fixes most of it. Configure that first.

Before you call it a leak

  • Some customers want partials immediately, and splitting is the right service. The measure is unrequested splits.

Think this might be happening in your business?

Turn the finding into a next step.

If the numbers say there is something there, send us what you found and we will help you decide whether it is worth a full investigation. No transaction files needed for that conversation.

Let’s start with one thing.

What would better performance look like?

Bring a result you want to improve, a symptom, or a workflow you already understand. You do not need to know the bottleneck yet. We’ll help choose what to investigate first.

No transaction files needed for the first conversation.